Relation between COVID-19 fatality rate and hospital resources

Abstract

Introduction: The fatality rate by COVID-19 has generated a lot of concern among citizens and the media regarding the official numbers provided by different governments. Public health today must cope with the most significant pandemic of the twenty-first century.

Objective: Analyze the fatality rate due to COVID-19 and its relation with critical hospital resources, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: The fatality rate was analyzed on the basis of official data. The number of cases was underestimated to obtain a more real estimate of the extent of the infection, of the indicators of important (critical) hospital resources in pandemic transition that could raise the post-study fatality rate. Double-smoothed exponential trend curves, S-distribution and regression techniques were used.

Results: The curve that best explained the behavior of COVID-19 deaths in Chile was a cubic regression equation. The basic hospitalization variable was distributed as an S-curve. The variables called mean hospitalization, critical patients, intensive treatment unit, intensive care unit, total mechanical ventilators and busy mechanical ventilators could be explained by cubic regressions. In all cases, R² values were greater than 95 %.

Conclusions: The number of deaths will continue to rise. It is suggested to fortify the basic hospitalization units to prevent the collapse of the health network. It is necessary to continue growing in terms of medium complexity hospitalization, intensive treatment unit, intensive care unit and total number of mechanical ventilators to ensure health support.