Impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Cuba, 1994-2015

Abstract

Introduction: Incidence is critical to assess the burden of tuberculosis.

Objective: Assess the impact of the "National Program of Tuberculosis Control " on the incidence of tuberculosis in Cuba in the period 1994-2015.

Methods: Study of time series of tuberculosis incidence in the period 1994-2015. The exponential trend and variations in the trends of new cases reported in Cuba and its provinces were estimated; also the annual totals and averages for the periods 1994-1999, 1999-2015 and 1994-2015. The absolute and relative differences between the Cuban provinces from 1994-2015 were calculated.

Results: The overall trend of the rate was downward. The period from 1994-1999 had a reduction of -0.33x100 000 (-505 cases) and between 1999 and 2015 it was -0.42 (-448 cases). The average annual reduction between 1994-1999 was -0.07 and from 1999-2015 it was -0.03. In 1994, 1999 and 2015, 1616 cases (14.7), 1111 (10.0) and 651 (5.8) were reported, respectively. In 1994 the highest rate corresponded to the province of Cienfuegos (23.1) with a percentage population attributable risk of 65.8%. In 1999 and 2015, the highest rates occurred in Ciego de Ávila (18.3) and (9.5), respectively (percentage population attributable risk of 60.7% in 1999 and 75.8% in 2015). In 1994 and 1999 all provinces had rates > 5.0. In 2015, eight provinces showed rates < 5.0. In 1999 the province with the greatest variation in its annual rate was Cienfuegos (-0.65) and in 2015 Camagüey (-0.73).

Conclusions: The "National Program of Tuberculosis Control " in Cuba obtained until 2015 a discreet sustained decrease in the incidence of the disease in the country; but it is not enough to achieve its elimination, so new differentiated and prioritized interventions are required.